Rick Perry last fall (and stuff about Palin)

via Rick Perry Newsweek Interview on Federalism, Medicare, and 2012 Race – The Daily Beast

You were just reelected. When you finish out this term, it’ll be 14 years as governor of Texas—an all-time record. Given that there are no term limits in the Lone Star state, are you planning to stay on and run again?

To look past this term, the next four years, is way down the road. To say “here’s what I’m going to be doing in 2014” is a bit of stretch.

But you’ve said that you’ve got the best job in the country…

I do.

… and that you have no interest in running president. Still the case?

Not going to run for president. Not going to be a vice-presidential candidate. Not going to be in anybody’s cabinet. And I suspect I’m not going to be anybody’s ambassador either.

The article was published today, so I did a double take at the last portion. The interview is from last fall though. Most people say they don’t plan to run but end up running anyways, but this is the strongest “no way” I’ve seen before someone has decided to run.

For what it’s worth, Palin is dropping hints that she might run all over the place in Iowa today. In usual fashion, it’s impossible to tell if she’s doing it just for attention (aka: to draw attention away from others) or to create legitimate buzz

I’m inclined to think she’ll run. But just like she waited for Bachmann to be torn apart, she’ll wait for Perry to be ripped a little bit before joining. If she joins, I suspect it will be around mid-September. There will be two debates in early Sept; one on the 7th (MSNBC) and one on the 12th (CNN). What do you want to bet she announces September 10th, skips the debate on the 12th (daring the candidates to attack her while she’s not present) then shows up Sept 22nd for another Fox News debate?

If she joins at all, I suspect that’s how she’ll do it. She’s the only one that could join that late and still have a chance to win. She can raise money faster than a flash flood, and she’ll have enough loyal volunteers to build a campaign network to rival Romney or Perry easily before the end of October.

I still think at this point that every day she waits to join is one extra day she can spend learning about issues and preparing and one more day that everyone else can stumble. It’s smart for her to wait as long as possible, and her window of opportunity is definitely still open.

October 1st is probably her deadline. For any other candidate, the deadline is basically this weekend, when Perry will presumably be the last (non-Palin) to enter, and even he had to start putting pieces in place over a month ago. Palin has done none of the small scale things that candidates need to do if they plan to run.

So the question boils down to: Does she think she can put together a campaign in record speed with record money? Or is she really not running?

The answer to both may be yes, actually.

I hope she runs for the sheer chaos and intrigue of it all. I suspect she runs because she could relatively easily win the nomination (and more cynically: because whether she wins or loses the general election she would like to be in history forever as the first female major party nominee).


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