So Perry really tripped up this debate, as I sort of expected him to do (wrote a post about a week ago about how his momentum is, perhaps irreversibly, stalled after a weak performance in the last debate, inre: HPV shots).
What comes next is Palin’s decision.
If she’s been withholding a decision just to fuck around with everyone and not run, then what happened tonight doesn’t matter.
If, as I’ve posited, she’s been waiting as long as possible in order to allow the current candidates time to self-immolate, then she just saw Perry light up Palin’s path to front-runner status.
There has been speculation about Palin running as an independent candidate. As amusing as that would be, I really can’t see it happening unless she is intent on starting a new political party. With Perry’s serious stumble in tonight’s debate, there is no reason to go full rogue. If Palin enters, it automatically becomes a Palin/Perry/Romney race, with Palin stealing a lot of Perry’s thunder (and supporters) and portraying him as a corrupt lifetime politician while (easily) showing that she is ten buckets more charismatic than Romney.
I don’t know if the votes are there for Palin if she enters. But the stage is set, and this play still needs a clear leading actor/actress.
With a bit of trepidation, I’m still leaning towards thinking she’ll get in the race. Like $50 bet sure. Gonna be a hell of a race if she enters.